(no subject)
Mar. 25th, 2008 09:28 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
fandaalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War#Factors_Leading_to_War
The youth bulge theory is a refinement of Malthusian theory that focuses on large numbers of unemployed young men. Contributors to the development of youth bulge theory include French sociologist Gaston Bouthoul,[9], U.S. sociologist Jack A. Goldstone,[10], U.S. political scientist Gary Fuller,[11][12][13], and German sociologist Gunnar Heinsohn.[14] Samuel Huntington has modified his Clash of Civilizations theory by using youth bulge theory as its foundation:
"I don’t think Islam is any more violent than any other religions, and I suspect if you added it all up, more people have been slaughtered by Christians over the centuries than by Muslims. But the key factor is the demographic factor. Generally speaking, the people who go out and kill other people are males between the ages of 16 and 30".[15]
Youth Bulge theories represent a relatively recent development but seem to have become more influential in guiding U.S. foreign policy and military strategy as both Goldstone and Fuller have acted as consultants to the U.S. Government. CIA Inspector General John L. Helgerson referred to youth bulge theory in his 2002 report "The National Security Implications of Global Demographic Change".[16]
According to Heinsohn, who has proposed youth bulge theory in its most generalized form, a youth bulge occurs when 30 to 40 percent of the males of a nation belong to the "fighting age" cohorts from 15 to 29 years of age. It will follow periods with total fertility rates as high as 4-8 children per woman with a 15-29 year delay. A total fertility rate of 2,1 children born by a woman during her lifetime represents a situation of in which the son will replace the father, the daughter the mother. Thus, a total fertility rate of 2,1 represents replacement level, while anything below represents a sub-replacement fertility rate leading to population decline. Total fertility rates above 2,1 will lead to population growth and to a youth bulge. A total fertility rate of 4-8 children per mother implies 2-4 sons per mother. Consequently, one father has to leave not 1, but 2 to 4 social positions (jobs) to give all his sons a perspective for life, which is usually hard to achieve. Since respectable positions cannot be increased at the same speed as food, textbooks and vaccines, many "angry young men" find themselves in a situation that tends to escalate their adolescent anger into violence: they are
demographically superfluous,
might be out of work or stuck in a menial job, and
often have no access to a legal sex life before a career can earn them enough to provide for a family.
The combination of these stress factors according to Heinsohn[17] usually heads for one of six different exits:
Violent Crime
Emigration ("non violent colonization")
Rebellion or putsch
Civil war and/or revolution
Genocide (to take over the positions of the slaughtered)
Conquest (violent colonization, frequently including genocide abroad).
собственно, задача экспансивной культуры в том, чтобы вместо преступности, бунтов и гражданской войны направить сердитую молодежь на войну и колонизацию.
а ограничение экспансии заключается в уменьшении демографического давления через доступ к работе, статусу и до/внебрачному сексу.
The youth bulge theory is a refinement of Malthusian theory that focuses on large numbers of unemployed young men. Contributors to the development of youth bulge theory include French sociologist Gaston Bouthoul,[9], U.S. sociologist Jack A. Goldstone,[10], U.S. political scientist Gary Fuller,[11][12][13], and German sociologist Gunnar Heinsohn.[14] Samuel Huntington has modified his Clash of Civilizations theory by using youth bulge theory as its foundation:
"I don’t think Islam is any more violent than any other religions, and I suspect if you added it all up, more people have been slaughtered by Christians over the centuries than by Muslims. But the key factor is the demographic factor. Generally speaking, the people who go out and kill other people are males between the ages of 16 and 30".[15]
Youth Bulge theories represent a relatively recent development but seem to have become more influential in guiding U.S. foreign policy and military strategy as both Goldstone and Fuller have acted as consultants to the U.S. Government. CIA Inspector General John L. Helgerson referred to youth bulge theory in his 2002 report "The National Security Implications of Global Demographic Change".[16]
According to Heinsohn, who has proposed youth bulge theory in its most generalized form, a youth bulge occurs when 30 to 40 percent of the males of a nation belong to the "fighting age" cohorts from 15 to 29 years of age. It will follow periods with total fertility rates as high as 4-8 children per woman with a 15-29 year delay. A total fertility rate of 2,1 children born by a woman during her lifetime represents a situation of in which the son will replace the father, the daughter the mother. Thus, a total fertility rate of 2,1 represents replacement level, while anything below represents a sub-replacement fertility rate leading to population decline. Total fertility rates above 2,1 will lead to population growth and to a youth bulge. A total fertility rate of 4-8 children per mother implies 2-4 sons per mother. Consequently, one father has to leave not 1, but 2 to 4 social positions (jobs) to give all his sons a perspective for life, which is usually hard to achieve. Since respectable positions cannot be increased at the same speed as food, textbooks and vaccines, many "angry young men" find themselves in a situation that tends to escalate their adolescent anger into violence: they are
demographically superfluous,
might be out of work or stuck in a menial job, and
often have no access to a legal sex life before a career can earn them enough to provide for a family.
The combination of these stress factors according to Heinsohn[17] usually heads for one of six different exits:
Violent Crime
Emigration ("non violent colonization")
Rebellion or putsch
Civil war and/or revolution
Genocide (to take over the positions of the slaughtered)
Conquest (violent colonization, frequently including genocide abroad).
собственно, задача экспансивной культуры в том, чтобы вместо преступности, бунтов и гражданской войны направить сердитую молодежь на войну и колонизацию.
а ограничение экспансии заключается в уменьшении демографического давления через доступ к работе, статусу и до/внебрачному сексу.
